Effective and reliable electrical energy delivery faces a number of significant challenges in South Africa. Eskom, the public utility, produces more than 95 percent of the power in South Africa, and the challenges the utility faces are well documented. With an installed capacity of approximately 42,000 megawatts (MW) and a peak demand that, at times, could exceed 33,000 MW, Eskom is left holding a theoretical reserve margin of 9,000 MW.

As the demand for utilities in the form of power and water increases along with economic and population growth, the private sector will increasingly become involved in meeting that demand. AECOM is ideally positioned to support both the private and the public sectors.

We have successfully undertaken more than $800 million in energy projects in the past five years alone, including power projects for transmission and distribution, substations and utility scale conventional and renewable power generation. Globally our clients include RWE, EDF, Noble Wind Farms, Vestas, Nordic, and Solar Millennium. In South Africa, our clients include Alstom, Eskom, Hitachi, Department of Energy (DoE), Industrial Development Corporation (IDC), Mainstream Renewable, Red-Cap Investment, Vestas and SAGIT.

Identifying the Challenges

The commonly accepted practice is to have at least 15 percent “spinning reserve,” (extra generating capacity) available. Adding 15 percent to 33,000 MW translates to approximately 38,000 MW, which would seem adequate; however, the actual Energy Availability Factor trends below 74%, leaving only 31,000 MW available on average.

This places South Africa in a precarious situation. The challenges facing Eskom are diverse: poor quality coal, an inadequate and irregular supply of coal, maintenance in arrears, constraints on capital expenditure, and loss of skills in all the key disciplines of engineering, maintenance and operations.

The addition of Medupi and Kusile power plants (combined about 9,000 MW) will not be achieved at once and can, at best, be phased to include between 800 MW and 1,600 MW per year. The addition of this load will be welcomed, but if demand in growth is factored in and the Energy Availability Factor does not substantially improve these two large power plants will not significantly mitigate the ever-present issue of load-shedding.

In addition, in light of the emissions exceeded by the Eskom fleet versus World Bank requirements, significant capital investment is required to ensure the Eskom fleet becomes compliant with World Bank standards. Given the present economic circumstances and debt downgrades, raising this capital will be challenging.

Renewable Energy Programme

The renewable energy programme has achieved a great deal of success  and has received international acclaim. The utilisation factor on renewable energy, however, is low due to the two inherent issues: sunlight is not available over the entire course of a 24-hour day and the wind does not blow at full gust over the entire course of a 24-hour day. As a result, South Africa needs additional sources of power generation. The focus is currently on the Department of Energy Independent Power Producer (IPP) programme for coal and gas. Approximately 2,500 MW of coal and 3,500 MW of gas-generated power is envisaged and, due to the nature and size of the plants, a distributed base will likely ensure greater continuity of supply. It is of vital importance that these two programmes are launched successfully and grow from the present target to support Eskom to meet the power requirements of the future.